![]() Maps of exceedance probability given a deposit thickness threshold, and thickness maps given a probability of exceedance, are produced (a) for two eruptive scenarios (sub-Plinian and Plinian) and (b) as a combination of these scenarios in case the next eruption will be sub-Plinian or Plinian. ![]() ![]() We utilize PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT models, and a procedure for uncertainty quantification where: (a) the uncertainty on eruptive source parameters and eruption type occurrence is quantified through expert elicitation (b) we implement a new procedure for correlations between the different parameters, and (c) we use correction coefficients to take into account the uncertainty of the numerical model. We therefore present a tephra fallout hazard assessment study for two active volcanoes (Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha) in Ecuador. Regarding maps production, the input parameters of the model (including atmospheric conditions), the physical approximations of the numerical simulations, and the probabilities of occurrence of different eruption types in specific time frames are among the most critical sources of uncertainty. Tephra fallout hazard assessment is undertaken with probabilistic maps that rely on numerical models. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |